When skit hits the fan.

17.08.2017 11:55

Our basic focus is the revision of Folla-Vindolareguleringen in Surna. It is a relatively calm business because Statkraft have chosen the strategy to ignore us, thinking they will prevail in Oslo. Also, we have over twenty years experience of Surna and its catchment. Now and then we air our thoughts on ‘oppdrett’ or sea farming, and lately on the Gulf Stream. We have been named a lot of things, certainly not to be recited.

However, some are convinced in their truth and especially we would like to answer those who believe that the Gulf Stream will increase in power when the Arctic ice melts. You have not convinced us but if you come up with more evidence you might, say from a model including the topology of the Arctic bottom. The flow is highly nonlinear, stochastic or flip/flop, and it has been shown again and again that theories are wrong, favorably valid only for a short duration of time. To make decisions for the future we must have an opinion which is based on scientific facts as far as we can.

We know that the down welling increases when a cold high pressure governs the weather, say between Svalbard and Greenland. There is no snow or rain so the upper layer water of the Gulf Stream will keep its salinity but is cooled. The water from the Arctic will have the ice to cover it and is pretty much constant in temperature and sweetness, but seams to vary in outgoing flow into the Atlantic with a ten year cycle. Salt water is heavier than sweet water but cold water is heavier than warm. It’s the difference in weight that drives the down welling, the force is gravity. The cooler the salt water the heavier it will be, and after it has overcome the weight of the cold sweet water the faster it will sink with lower temperature.

The difference of opinion is what happens when the Arctic ice melts, when the water of the Gulf Stream meets water from the Arctic with changed conditions. We believe the water from the Arctic will be saltier and therefore colder as the melting point is lower, resulting in heavier water from the Arctic. The divide between the salt water from the Gulf Stream and the now less sweet water from the Arctic will be less pronounced.

To sum up; Water from the Arctic will be heavier when the ice is gone resulting in less down welling, and therefore a weaker Gulf Stream. There might be an increase of activity when the Arctic ice starts to melt but after a part of the ice is gone we believe in our theory.


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